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BI Open
Research . 2017
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American Economic Journal Macroeconomics
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Oil and Macroeconomic (In)Stability

Authors: Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Maih, Junior;

Oil and Macroeconomic (In)Stability

Abstract

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing US macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role. (JEL E12, E23, E52, Q35, Q43)

Country
Norway
Keywords

VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212, Q43, ddc:330, JEL: Q43, Markov Switching, JEL: E32, JEL: C11, JEL: E42, Oil price, New-Keynesian model, Great Moderation, C11, E42, E32

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    selected citations
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    35
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
35
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze