A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Criminal Investigations
Copyright policy )A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Criminal Investigations
Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through what they know, observe and learn from intelligence reports about their activities. In this paper we customise a three-level Bayesian hierarchical model to describe this process. This is able to propagate both routine and unexpected evidence in real time. We discuss how to set up such a model so that it calibrates to domain expert judgments. The model illustrations include a hypothetical example based on a potential vehicle based terrorist attack.
57 pages, 20 figures, 8 tables
hierarchical models, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Applications of statistics to social sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, J.4, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Markov processes: hypothesis testing, Markov processes, Chain Event Graphs, Bayesian inference, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Statistics - Applications, Machine Learning (cs.LG), 62P25, chain event graphs, Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI), Statistics - Machine Learning, probabilistic graphical models, Applications (stat.AP), Markov switching models, decision support systems, Probabilistic graphical models
hierarchical models, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Applications of statistics to social sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, J.4, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Markov processes: hypothesis testing, Markov processes, Chain Event Graphs, Bayesian inference, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Statistics - Applications, Machine Learning (cs.LG), 62P25, chain event graphs, Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI), Statistics - Machine Learning, probabilistic graphical models, Applications (stat.AP), Markov switching models, decision support systems, Probabilistic graphical models
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