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Risk scores to predict mortality 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer in elderly patients

Authors: Nerea González; Ane Loroño; Urko Aguirre; Santiago Lázaro; Marisa Baré; Maximino Redondo; Eduardo Briones; +69 Authors

Risk scores to predict mortality 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer in elderly patients

Abstract

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery and to develop a risk score. Methods This was an observational prospective cohort study. Individuals over 80 years diagnosed with colorectal cancer and treated surgically were recruited in 18 hospitals in the Spanish National Health Service, between June 2010 and December 2012, and were followed up 1, 2, 3, and 5 years after surgery. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected. The primary outcomes were mortality at 2 and between 2 and 5 years after the index admission. Results The predictors of mortality 2 years after surgery were haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl and colon locations (HR 1.02; CI 0.51–2.02), ASA class of IV (HR 3.55; CI 1.91–6.58), residual tumour classification of R2 (HR 7.82; CI 3.11–19.62), TNM stage of III (HR 2.14; CI 1.23–3.72) or IV (HR 3.21; CI 1.47–7), LODDS of more than − 0.53 (HR 3.08; CI 1.62–5.86)) and complications during admission (HR 1.73; CI 1.07–2.80). Between 2 and 5 years of follow-up, the predictors were no tests performed within the first year of follow-up (HR 2.58; CI 1.21–5.46), any complication due to the treatment within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 2.47; CI 1.27–4.81), being between 85 and 89 and not having radiotherapy within the second year of follow-up (HR 1.60; CI 1.01–2.55), no colostomy closure within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 4.93; CI 1.48–16.41), medical complications (HR 1.61; CI 1.06–2.44), tumour recurrence within the 2 years of follow-up period (HR 3.19; CI 1.96–5.18), and readmissions at 1 or 2 years of follow-up after surgery (HR 1.44; CI 0.86–2.41). Conclusion We have identified variables that, in our sample, predict mortality 2 and between 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer older patients. We have also created risks scores, which could support the decision-making process. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02488161.

Country
Spain
Keywords

RD1-811, Research, Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens, Prognosis, Colorectal cancer, State Medicine, Elderly, Risk Factors, Humans, Risk score, Surgery, Prospective Studies, Mortality, Neoplasm Recurrence, Local, Colorectal Neoplasms, RC254-282, Outcome, Aged

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold