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Journal of Climate
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms

Authors: Bercos-Hickey, Emily; Patricola, Christina M; Gallus, William A;

Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms

Abstract

Abstract The impact of climate change on severe storms and tornadoes remains uncertain, largely owing to inconsistencies in observational data and limitations of climate models. We performed ensembles of convection-permitting climate model simulations to examine how three tornadic storms would change if similar events were to occur in pre-industrial and future climates. The choice of events includes winter, nocturnal, and spring tornadic storms to provide insight into how the timing and seasonality of storms may affect their response to climate change. Updraft helicity (UH), convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm-relative helicity (SRH), and convective inhibition (CIN) were used to determine the favorability for the three tornadic storm events in the different climate states. We found that from the pre-industrial period to the present, the potential for tornadic storms decreased for the winter event and increased for the nocturnal and spring events. With future climate change, the potential for tornadic storms increased for the winter and nocturnal events in association with increased CAPE, and decreased for the spring event despite greater CAPE.

Country
United States
Keywords

550, Convective storms, 3702 Climate change science (for-2020), Regional models, 3708 Oceanography (for-2020), 0401 Atmospheric Sciences (for), Oceanography, 551, 3701 Atmospheric Sciences (for-2020), Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences (science-metrix), Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate change, 3701 Atmospheric sciences (for-2020), Climate change science, 0405 Oceanography (for), 0909 Geomatic Engineering (for), Climate Action, Geomatic Engineering, 37 Earth Sciences (for-2020), Earth Sciences, 13 Climate Action (sdg)

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    4
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green