Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation
Copyright policy )Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation
Using data from the period 1970–1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992–2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of “naive” benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period. (JEL: E58, E31)
ddc:330, Economic forecasting, Simulation Methods, Zentralbank, Inflation (Finance), Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut, E52 - Monetary Policy, Inflationsrate, C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.); Inflation (Finance); Economic forecasting, C53, Wirtschaftsprognose, E52, Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion, USA, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:E52
ddc:330, Economic forecasting, Simulation Methods, Zentralbank, Inflation (Finance), Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut, E52 - Monetary Policy, Inflationsrate, C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.); Inflation (Finance); Economic forecasting, C53, Wirtschaftsprognose, E52, Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion, USA, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:E52
selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources.This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).27 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
Citations provided by BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!