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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Article
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Article . 2014
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An Optimized Grey Dynamic Model for Forecasting the Output of High‐Tech Industry in China

An optimized grey dynamic model for forecasting the output of high-tech industry in China
Authors: Wang, Zheng-Xin; Pei, Ling-Ling;

An Optimized Grey Dynamic Model for Forecasting the Output of High‐Tech Industry in China

Abstract

The grey dynamic model by convolution integral with the first‐order derivative of the 1‐AGO data and n series related, abbreviated as GDMC(1, n), performs well in modelling and forecasting of a grey system. To improve the modelling accuracy of GDMC(1, n), n interpolation coefficients (taken as unknown parameters) are introduced into the background values of the n variables. The parameters optimization is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem and is solved collectively using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The optimized result has been verified by a case study of the economic output of high‐tech industry in China. Comparisons of the obtained modelling results from the optimized GDMC(1, n) model with the traditional one demonstrate that the optimal algorithm is a good alternative for parameters optimization of the GDMC(1, n) model. The modelling results can assist the government in developing future policies regarding high‐tech industry management.

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Keywords

Economic time series analysis, Management decision making, including multiple objectives, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), Applications of statistics in engineering and industry; control charts

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold