Managing project dependencies is a key maintenance issue in software development. Developers need to choose an update strategy that allows them to receive important updates and fixes while protecting them from breaking changes. Semantic Versioning was proposed to address this dilemma, but many have opted for more restrictive or permissive alternatives. This empirical study explores the association between package characteristics and the dependency update strategy selected by its dependents to understand how developers select and change their update strategies. We study over 112,000 Node Package Manager (npm) packages and use 19 characteristics to build a prediction model that identifies the common dependency update strategy for each package. Our model achieves a minimum improvement of 72% over the baselines and is much better aligned with community decisions than the npm default strategy. We investigate how different package characteristics can influence the predicted update strategy and find that dependent count, age, and release status to be the highest influencing features. We complement the work with qualitative analyses of 160 packages to investigate the evolution of update strategies. While the common update strategy remains consistent for many packages, certain events such as the release of the 1.0.0 version or breaking changes influence the selected update strategy over time.