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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Canadian Journal of ...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
Article . 1991 . Peer-reviewed
License: CSP TDM
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Economic risk analysis of large engineering projects

Authors: Malik Ranasinghe; Alan D. Russell;

Economic risk analysis of large engineering projects

Abstract

A consistent, four-moment-based approach for quantifying time and economic risks is presented. The goal is to produce a computationally economical approach that can be used to explore the time and economic feasibility of various strategies for executing and sequencing major work packages that describe an engineering project. A three-level hierarchy of variables is used, starting with time, cost and revenue performance at the work package/revenue stream level to net present value and internal rate of return at the project decision level. The treatment of correlations between primary variables at all levels of the hierarchy is included. A modified form of the probabilistic network evaluation technique (PNET) algorithm is presented for quantifying time uncertainty. Use of limiting values (0, 1) of the PNET transitional correlation provides bounds for all decision variables. A comparison with Monte Carlo simulation of a case study is presented to demonstrate the validity and the computational economy of the analytical approach. Key words: economic risk quantification, large engineering projects, probability analysis, moment analysis, Monte Carlo simulation.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Average
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