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https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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PubMed Central
Article . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: PubMed Central
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Negligible contribution from aerosols to recent trends in Earth’s energy imbalance

Authors: Chanyoung Park; Brian J. Soden;

Negligible contribution from aerosols to recent trends in Earth’s energy imbalance

Abstract

During the 21st century, Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) at the top of atmosphere has markedly increased because of greater absorbed shortwave (SW) rather than reduced outgoing longwave radiation. Previous studies using single-forcing (aerosol-only) experiments attributed approximately half of the positive SW trend to reductions in anthropogenic aerosols, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In contrast, our analysis using observations and reanalysis indicates that both aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions have made a negligible contribution to recent EEI trends. While NH anthropogenic aerosols have decreased, enhanced emissions from wildfires and volcanic activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) have produced comparable increases, yielding little net global impact. This hemispheric compensation also suggests that model-based estimates may overestimate aerosol influence by overlooking SH aerosol contributions. Despite uncertainties in aerosol proxies, the consistent results from two complementary proxies—satellite-derived aerosol index and reanalysis-based sulfate mass concentration—highlight the importance of accounting for natural source aerosols when assessing EEI trends.

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Keywords

Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold