
Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: We extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller than model grid size, which have been the main source of model projection uncertainty. Recent machine learning (ML) algorithms hold promise to improve such process representations but tend to extrapolate poorly to climate regimes that they were not trained on. To get the best of the physical and statistical worlds, we propose a framework, termed “climate-invariant” ML, incorporating knowledge of climate processes into ML algorithms, and show that it can maintain high offline accuracy across a wide range of climate conditions and configurations in three distinct atmospheric models. Our results suggest that explicitly incorporating physical knowledge into data-driven models of Earth system processes can improve their consistency, data efficiency, and generalizability across climate regimes.
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences, 550, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), FOS: Physical sciences, Computational Physics (physics.comp-ph), Physics - Computational Physics, Machine Learning (cs.LG)
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences, 550, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), FOS: Physical sciences, Computational Physics (physics.comp-ph), Physics - Computational Physics, Machine Learning (cs.LG)
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 66 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 1% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 1% |
