Abstract Structures subject to crack growth spend 90–95% of their lifetime in nucleation of very tiny flaws into measurable crack sizes. Due to the large variation in initial flaw sizes and the mathematics of flaw growth, the fatigue lifetimes, even of high-quality structures, can vary by a factor of as much as 10 to 20 even in a small fleet. This large variation in fatigue lifetimes leads to conservative statistics, which often prompts the premature retirement or overhaul of structures, since they focus on the weakest members of the fleet, while the remainder of the fleet is sound. In the past two years, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed a new Griffith energy-based technique that can provide useful warning of the impending failure of a structure due to end-of-life crack propagation. This technique has been demonstrated by test and analysis in fiberglass composite for tension-tension fatigue.