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Social Policy and Administration
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Social Policy and Administration
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Article . 2021
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The next generation EU: An analysis of the dimensions of conflict behind the deal

An Analysis of the Dimensions of Conflict behind the Deal
Authors: Caroline de la Porte; Mads Dagnis Jensen;

The next generation EU: An analysis of the dimensions of conflict behind the deal

Abstract

AbstractThis article presents an analysis of why it was possible to reach an agreement on the Next Generation EU (NGEU), the EU's fiscal and policy response to the COVID‐19 pandemic, since the deal breaks with the norms of no common debt issuance and will result in significant redistribution across Member States through grants. Based on an in‐depth case study analysis, we identify three main dimensions of conflict underlying the political negotiations: the fiscal dimension, the rule‐of‐law dimension and the policy dimension, especially the climate and digitalization agendas. Various coalitions of actors were able to negotiate on these aspects, keeping a balance between their main priorities, but also making concessions, to enable an agreement. Our analysis reveals that the Franco‐German alliance has been revived, enabling the grant instrument in the NGEU to be adopted; a new alliance of small rich northern states named the Frugals' has emerged as a surprisingly strong coalition, insisting on conditionality for accessing the grant; a clear Polish‐Hungarian front has appeared to be challenging the EU's commitment to the rule‐of‐law; and a weakly coordinated Spanish‐Italian front was successful in terms of securing grants as an instrument. The article also assesses that despite the agreement on the deal, there will continue to be battles in the NGEU, especially on the fiscal and rule‐of‐law dimensions. Yet, it could represent a ‘Hamiltonian moment,’ if the NGEU becomes a permanent fiscal instrument, which would advance European integration further.

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Keywords

Franco-German alliance, European council, Actor-centred institutionalism, COVID-19, Next generation EU, European Commission, Fiscal union, Frugals

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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
155
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
hybrid