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Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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Prior Sample Size Extensions for Assessing Prior Impact and Prior-Likelihood Discordance

Authors: Reimherr, Matthew; Meng, Xiao-Li; Nicolae, Dan L.;

Prior Sample Size Extensions for Assessing Prior Impact and Prior-Likelihood Discordance

Abstract

AbstractThis paper outlines a framework for quantifying the prior’s contribution to posterior inference in the presence of prior-likelihood discordance, a broader concept than the usual notion of prior-likelihood conflict. We achieve this dual purpose by extending the classic notion of prior sample size, M, in three directions: (I) estimating M beyond conjugate families; (II) formulating M as a relative notion that is as a function of the likelihood sample size k, M(k), which also leads naturally to a graphical diagnosis; and (III) permitting negative M, as a measure of prior-likelihood conflict, that is, harmful discordance. Our asymptotic regime permits the prior sample size to grow with the likelihood data size, hence making asymptotic arguments meaningful for investigating the impact of the prior relative to that of likelihood. It leads to a simple asymptotic formula for quantifying the impact of a proper prior that only involves computing a centrality and a spread measure of the prior and the posterior. We use simulated and real data to illustrate the potential of the proposed framework, including quantifying how weak is a ‘weakly informative’ prior adopted in a study of lupus nephritis. Whereas we take a pragmatic perspective in assessing the impact of a prior on a given inference problem under a specific evaluative metric, we also touch upon conceptual and theoretical issues such as using improper priors and permitting priors with asymptotically non-vanishing influence.

Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, 62F15, Statistics - Methodology

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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid