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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Risk Analysisarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Risk Analysis
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
Risk Analysis
Article . 2018
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A Generalized QMRA Beta‐Poisson Dose‐Response Model

Authors: Xie, Gang; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Dunn, Peter K; Mengersen, Kerrie;

A Generalized QMRA Beta‐Poisson Dose‐Response Model

Abstract

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is widely accepted for characterizing the microbial risks associated with food, water, and wastewater. Single‐hit dose‐response models are the most commonly used dose‐response models in QMRA. Denoting as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, a three‐parameter generalized QMRA beta‐Poisson dose‐response model, , is proposed in which the minimum number of organisms required for causing infection, Kmin, is not fixed, but a random variable following a geometric distribution with parameter . The single‐hit beta‐Poisson model, , is a special case of the generalized model with Kmin = 1 (which implies ). The generalized beta‐Poisson model is based on a conceptual model with greater detail in the dose‐response mechanism. Since a maximum likelihood solution is not easily available, a likelihood‐free approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm is employed for parameter estimation. By fitting the generalized model to four experimental data sets from the literature, this study reveals that the posterior median estimates produced fall short of meeting the required condition of = 1 for single‐hit assumption. However, three out of four data sets fitted by the generalized models could not achieve an improvement in goodness of fit. These combined results imply that, at least in some cases, a single‐hit assumption for characterizing the dose‐response process may not be appropriate, but that the more complex models may be difficult to support especially if the sample size is small. The three‐parameter generalized model provides a possibility to investigate the mechanism of a dose‐response process in greater detail than is possible under a single‐hit model.

Country
Australia
Keywords

Food Contamination, 310, Risk Assessment, approximate Bayesian computation, Mice, Campylobacter Infections, Animals, Humans, Listeriosis, Poisson Distribution, singlehit beta-Poisson models, Probability, Likelihood Functions, Models, Statistical, QMRA, Bayes Theorem, a generalized beta-Poisson model, FoR multidisciplinary, Healthy Volunteers, Sample Size, Food Microbiology, Structural biology (incl. macromolecular modelling), Water Microbiology, Algorithms

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Average
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