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Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
DBLP
Article . 2024
Data sources: DBLP
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Infrastructure deterioration modeling with an inhomogeneous continuous time Markov chain: A latent state approach with analytic transition probabilities

Authors: Daijiro Mizutani; Xian-Xun Yuan;

Infrastructure deterioration modeling with an inhomogeneous continuous time Markov chain: A latent state approach with analytic transition probabilities

Abstract

Abstract Markov chains have been widely used to characterize performance deterioration of infrastructure assets, to model maintenance effectiveness, and to find the optimal intervention strategies. For long‐lived assets such as bridges, the time‐homogeneity assumptions of Markov chains should be carefully checked. For this purpose, this research proposes a regime‐switching continuous‐time Markov chain of which the state transition probabilities depend on another, latent, Markov chain that characterizes the overall aging regime of an asset. With the aid of a state‐augmentation technique, closed‐form solutions for the transition probabilities are analytically derived, making the statistical analysis simple. A case study is presented using the open Ontario Bridge Condition data for provincial highway bridges. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method allows to (1) estimate a statistically superior model to the homogeneous Markov chain and (2) obtain results with comparable accuracy in approximately 48% of the computation time of the state‐of‐the‐art inhomogeneous Markov chain.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
29
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
hybrid