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The Phillips Curve at the ECB

Authors: Eser, Fabian; Karadi, Peter; Lane, Philip R.; Moretti, Laura; Osbat, Chiara;

The Phillips Curve at the ECB

Abstract

AbstractWe explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced‐form estimates and relate the reduced‐form Phillips Curve to the (semi‐)structural models used at the ECB. Second, we identify the slope of the structural Phillips Curve by exploiting cross‐country variation and using high‐frequency monetary policy surprises as instruments. Third, we present reduced‐form evidence, focusing on the relation between slack and inflation and the role of inflation expectations. In relation to the recent weakness of inflation, we discuss the role of firm profits in the pass‐through from wages to prices and the contribution of external factors. Overall, the available evidence supports the view that the absorption of slack and a firm anchoring of inflation expectations remain central to successful inflation stabilization.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Phillips Curve, European Central Bank, ddc:330, E52, Inflation, E31, Monetary Policy

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
39
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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