
arXiv: 1112.5687
handle: 20.500.14299/127375 , 10044/1/50633
We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude of contagion in a large counterparty network and give an analytical expression for the asymptotic fraction of defaults, in terms of network characteristics. Our results extend previous studies on contagion in random graphs to inhomogeneous‐directed graphs with a given degree sequence and arbitrary distribution of weights. We introduce a criterion for the resilience of a large financial network to the insolvency of a small group of financial institutions and quantify how contagion amplifies small shocks to the network. Our results emphasize the role played by “contagious links” and show that institutions which contribute most to network instability have both large connectivity and a large fraction of contagious links. The asymptotic results show good agreement with simulations for networks with realistic sizes.
1502 Banking, 330, Economics, Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects), default contagion, Social Sciences, [MATH] Mathematics [math], BOOTSTRAP PERCOLATION, math.PR, 510, FOS: Economics and business, Finance And Investment, macroprudential regulation, Business & Economics, 0102 Applied Mathematics, systemic risk, FOS: Mathematics, TOPOLOGY, Business, Interdisciplinary Applications, interbank network, random graphs, Science & Technology, Probability (math.PR), Mathematical Methods, DIFFUSION, COMPONENT, MODEL, Stochastic network models in operations research, MARKET, q-fin.RM, Risk Management (q-fin.RM), Physical Sciences, DEGREE SEQUENCE, Finance, Mathematics, Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences, Financial applications of other theories, Mathematics - Probability, BANKING SYSTEMS, financial stability, Quantitative Finance - Risk Management
1502 Banking, 330, Economics, Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects), default contagion, Social Sciences, [MATH] Mathematics [math], BOOTSTRAP PERCOLATION, math.PR, 510, FOS: Economics and business, Finance And Investment, macroprudential regulation, Business & Economics, 0102 Applied Mathematics, systemic risk, FOS: Mathematics, TOPOLOGY, Business, Interdisciplinary Applications, interbank network, random graphs, Science & Technology, Probability (math.PR), Mathematical Methods, DIFFUSION, COMPONENT, MODEL, Stochastic network models in operations research, MARKET, q-fin.RM, Risk Management (q-fin.RM), Physical Sciences, DEGREE SEQUENCE, Finance, Mathematics, Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences, Financial applications of other theories, Mathematics - Probability, BANKING SYSTEMS, financial stability, Quantitative Finance - Risk Management
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 249 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 1% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 1% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
