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Journal of Time Series Analysis
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Permutation Testing for Monotone “Trend”

Authors: Joseph P. Romano; Marius A. Tirlea;

Permutation Testing for Monotone “Trend”

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn this article, we consider the fundamental problem of testing for monotone trend in a time series. While the term “trend” is commonly used and has an intuitive meaning, it is first crucial to specify its exact meaning in a hypothesis testing context. A commonly used well‐known test is the Mann‐Kendall test, which we show does not offer Type 1 error control even in large samples. On the other hand, by an appropriate studentization of the Mann‐Kendall statistic, we construct permutation tests that offer asymptotic error control quite generally, but retain the exactness property of permutation tests for i.i.d. observations. We also introduce “local” Mann‐Kendall statistics as a means of testing for local rather than global trend in a time series. Similar properties of permutation tests are obtained for these tests as well.

Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Mathematics, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Statistics - Methodology, 62G10

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green