
doi: 10.1111/joes.12205
AbstractA survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor‐based and time‐varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models. This survey also finds that models based on Taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates. The evidence on the use of Bayesian Model Averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power, but strong support for forecasting inflation. Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts, relevance of the historical data, data transformation, choice of the benchmark, selected time horizons, sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 10 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
