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Value in Health
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Value in Health
Article . 2009
License: Elsevier Non-Commercial
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Value in Health
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
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Value in Health
Article . 2010
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Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis: Be a Bayesian

Authors: Hendriek C. Boshuizen; Pieter van Baal;

Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis: Be a Bayesian

Abstract

To give guidance in defining probability distributions for model inputs in probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) from a full Bayesian perspective.A common approach to defining probability distributions for model inputs in PSA on the basis of input-related data is to use the likelihood of the data on an appropriate scale as the foundation for the distribution around the inputs. We will look at this approach from a Bayesian perspective, derive the implicit prior distributions in two examples (proportions and relative risks), and compare these to alternative prior distributions.In cases where data are sparse (in which case sensitivity analysis is crucial), commonly used approaches can lead to unexpected results. Weshow that this is because of the prior distributions that are implicitly assumed, namely that these are not as "uninformative" or "vague" as believed. We propose priors that we believe are more sensible for two examples and which are just as easy to apply.Input probability distributions should not be based on the likelihood of the data, but on the Bayesian posterior distribution calculated from this likelihood and an explicitly stated prior distribution.

Keywords

Risk, Likelihood Functions, Bayesian methods, prior probability distribution, Health Policy, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, maximum likelihood estimation, Bayes Theorem, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, Logistic Models, Models, Economic, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Confidence Intervals, Humans

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    22
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
22
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
hybrid