COMPONENTS OF UNCERTAINTY
Copyright policy )COMPONENTS OF UNCERTAINTY
AbstractUncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This article offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle different types of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques to classify different types of news instead of specifying a set of keywords. The article finds that, depending on its source, the effects of uncertainty on a macroeconomic variable may differ. I find that both good (expansionary effect) and bad (contractionary effect) types of uncertainty exist.
- Norges Bank Norway
- BI Norwegian Business School Norway
VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212, ddc:330, Uncertainty, JEL: D80, Business cycles, Newspaper, JEL: E66, JEL: E32, machine learning, business cycles, Topic model, Machine learning, D80, E66, newspaper, topic model, uncertainty, E32
VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212, ddc:330, Uncertainty, JEL: D80, Business cycles, Newspaper, JEL: E66, JEL: E32, machine learning, business cycles, Topic model, Machine learning, D80, E66, newspaper, topic model, uncertainty, E32
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