
doi: 10.1111/geb.70157
ABSTRACT Aim Climate velocity is commonly used to identify potential climate refugia, yet this climate‐only metric overlooks species‐specific ecological and dispersal constraints, and thus may fail to reveal the actual biotic velocity required to track shifting climates under different scenarios. To address this limitation, we developed a biotic velocity‐based framework to identify potential climate refugia. Location The Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), a subtropical biodiversity hotspot in China. Time Period Present to the 2090s (2081–2100). Major Taxa Studied Mammals, reptiles, birds, amphibians. Methods We developed a biotic velocity–based framework to identify three functionally distinct types of climate refugia with significant conservation value at the regional scale: (1) in‐situ refugia, where species assemblage can persist locally without spatial displacement (i.e., areas with mean forward or backward biotic velocity equal to 0), (2) stepping‐stone refugia, where species can track shifting climates with relatively low forward biotic velocity, and (3) ex‐situ refugia, which are areas that can be readily colonised by species from other regions due to low backward biotic velocity. This framework integrates species distribution models ( SDMs ), climate exposure metrics, and species‐specific dispersal capacities. In addition, we calculated climate velocity across the study region and assessed its correlation with biotic velocity. Results Potential refugia concentrated in western and southeastern parts of the MLRYR , with distinct spatial patterns across taxa and emission scenarios ( SSP2 ‐4.5 and SSP5 ‐8.5). Although approximately 19%–34% of existing protected areas overlapped with identified refugia hotspots, conservation gaps persisted over the long term. Moreover, the weak correlation between climate and biotic velocities highlights the limitations of climate‐only metrics in capturing species‐specific dispersal requirements. Main Conclusions Our findings demonstrate that biotic velocity provides a more ecologically realistic lens for identifying climate refugia and underscore the need to integrate such refugia into climate‐adaptive conservation planning.
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