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Global Change Biology
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC
Data sources: Crossref
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PubMed Central
Article . 2025
License: CC BY NC
Data sources: PubMed Central
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Mapping the Potential Risk of Coronavirus Spillovers in a Global Hotspot

Authors: R. Sedricke Lapuz; Ada Chornelia; Alice C. Hughes;

Mapping the Potential Risk of Coronavirus Spillovers in a Global Hotspot

Abstract

ABSTRACTBats harbor approximately a third of known mammal viruses, including the recent coronaviruses SARS‐CoV‐1 and SARS‐CoV‐2 that likely spilled over in Asia. As spillover risk increases due to habitat loss and fragmentation, we identified potential zoonotic spillover and pandemic risk hotspots by combining landscape characteristics with the diversity of competent hosts, with horseshoe bats (genus Rhinolophus) used as proxies for zoonotic pathogen reservoir hosts. We estimated the risk of coronavirus emergence in South and Southeast Asia by integrating Rhinolophid species distributions, forest fragmentation, and human population density data. Two scenarios were considered: one using baseline forest cover data, and another incorporating new regional infrastructure which drives further fragmentation. Results showed that under both scenarios, spillover risk hotspots are concentrated in Indochina and southern China, where host species richness and fragmentation are high, and where coronaviruses were previously detected in bat populations. Simulation of pandemic spread from the spillover risk hotspots using network models revealed risk hotspots clustered in Bangladesh and northeast India. These results highlight the vulnerability of human population centers and heightened risks from habitat fragmentation in Asia, especially given its history of recent coronavirus spillovers that became pandemics. Identifying hotspots emphasizes the need for a multidisciplinary approach to protect ecosystem integrity for public health, paving the way for improved predictive capabilities and targeted disease surveillance in at‐risk regions.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Asia, Disease Hotspot, SARS-CoV-2, Chiroptera, Zoonoses, Animals, Humans, COVID-19, Ecosystem, Research Article, Disease Reservoirs

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid
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