
AbstractMosquito‐borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait‐based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species – including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika – synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23–29ºC and declining to zero below 9–23ºC and above 32–38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25–26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
Plasmodium, 1105, FOS: Health sciences, Ecological applications, Zika virus, Dengue Epidemics, Aedes aegypti, Engineering, Aedes, Temperature-Dependence, Arbovirus, Ectotherm, Ecology, Host, Temperature, Biological Sciences, Malaria Transmission, climate change, Infectious Diseases, Virus Diseases, Larva, Medicine, Zika virus, Infection, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, West Nile virus, Warmer Temperatures, Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers and Zoonotic Infections, Plasmodium-Falciparum, 570, Environmental management, Climate Change, Immunology, malaria, 610, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, mosquito, Mosquito Vectors, dengue virus, Vaccine Related, thermal performance curve, Rare Diseases, 0603 Evolutionary Biology, Biodefense, Virology, Health Sciences, Ross River virus, Animals, Global Impact of Arboviral Diseases, Biology, Mosquito-borne, Evolutionary Biology, dengue virus, 0602 Ecology, Prevention, Metabolic Theory, FOS: Clinical medicine, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, temperature, Zika Virus, Dengue Virus, Dengue fever, Transmission (telecommunications), Malaria, Vector-Borne Diseases, Temperate climate, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Good Health and Well Being, Ecological Applications, FOS: Biological sciences, Electrical engineering, |0501 Ecological Applications, Reviews and Syntheses
Plasmodium, 1105, FOS: Health sciences, Ecological applications, Zika virus, Dengue Epidemics, Aedes aegypti, Engineering, Aedes, Temperature-Dependence, Arbovirus, Ectotherm, Ecology, Host, Temperature, Biological Sciences, Malaria Transmission, climate change, Infectious Diseases, Virus Diseases, Larva, Medicine, Zika virus, Infection, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, West Nile virus, Warmer Temperatures, Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers and Zoonotic Infections, Plasmodium-Falciparum, 570, Environmental management, Climate Change, Immunology, malaria, 610, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, mosquito, Mosquito Vectors, dengue virus, Vaccine Related, thermal performance curve, Rare Diseases, 0603 Evolutionary Biology, Biodefense, Virology, Health Sciences, Ross River virus, Animals, Global Impact of Arboviral Diseases, Biology, Mosquito-borne, Evolutionary Biology, dengue virus, 0602 Ecology, Prevention, Metabolic Theory, FOS: Clinical medicine, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, temperature, Zika Virus, Dengue Virus, Dengue fever, Transmission (telecommunications), Malaria, Vector-Borne Diseases, Temperate climate, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Good Health and Well Being, Ecological Applications, FOS: Biological sciences, Electrical engineering, |0501 Ecological Applications, Reviews and Syntheses
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