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Economic Inquiry
Article
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Economic Inquiry
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
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MONETARY POLICY RULES UNDER HETEROGENEOUS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

Authors: Sophocles N. Brissimis; Nicholas S. Magginas;

MONETARY POLICY RULES UNDER HETEROGENEOUS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of inflation‐forecast heterogeneity in U.S. monetary policymaking. The deviation between private and central bank inflation forecasts is identified as a significant explanatory factor behind the Fed's monetary policy decisions. A discretionary policy rule that includes the forecast deviation as an additional argument is estimated empirically for the period 1975–2009, covering the chairmanships of Arthur Burns, George Miller, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, and the beginning of Ben Bernanke's term, by using inflation forecasts obtained from the Federal Open Market Committee's Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters and real‐time estimates of the output gap. The estimated rule appears to provide a consistent description of the Fed's policy during the sample period presenting an alternative perspective regarding the key drivers of the high‐inflation phase in the 1970s as well as of the successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s and the gradual transition to a regime of lower inflation and high policy credibility that has increasingly characterized monetary policy over the past two decades. (JEL E50, E52, E58)

Keywords

Forward-looking model; Monetary policy reaction function; Expectations formation; Inflation expectations, jel: jel:D84, jel: jel:E43, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:E31, jel: jel:E58

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    popularity
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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
bronze