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Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2025
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Detecting mass mortality events in wildlife populations

Authors: Brunner, J.; Calabrese, J.;

Detecting mass mortality events in wildlife populations

Abstract

Abstract Reports in the literature of mass mortality events (MMEs) involving diverse animal taxa are increasing. Yet, many likely go unobserved due to imperfect detection and infrequent sampling. MMEs involving small, cryptic species, for instance, can be difficult to detect even during the event, and degradation and scavenging of carcasses can make the window for detection very short. Such detection biases make it difficult to understand trends in MMEs across time, regions, or taxa. Thus, we developed a simple modeling framework to clarify key aspects (e.g., sampling frequency, dynamics of detectability) of the problem and spur future work. Our framework describes the probability of detecting an MME as a function of the observation frequency relative to the rate at which MMEs become undetectable. Although simple, this framework is useful for developing an intuition about how the probability of detecting a randomly occurring MME increases with peak detectability, with slower rates of decay in detectability, and with more frequent observations. It can also facilitate the design of surveillance programs. To illustrate its utility, we applied it to Ranavirus ‐related MMEs in 35 populations of an endangered salamander subspecies. We found that the probability of detecting an MME was <50% and that the frequency of MMEs in this system was likely much greater than the one MME observed in the 35 ponds. The limitations of this framework (e.g., assumption that surveys occur regularly and with equal effort) may help set an agenda for future research in this area.

Country
Germany
Keywords

Method

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid