Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Biotropicaarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
Biotropica
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
addClaim

Forecasting the Risk of Reinvasion by the Giant African Snail in Ogasawara, Japan

Authors: Mai Matsumoto; Takeshi Osawa;

Forecasting the Risk of Reinvasion by the Giant African Snail in Ogasawara, Japan

Abstract

ABSTRACT Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the potential distribution of invasive species, even in areas with limited occurrence data. However, their accuracy may be compromised when input data are spatially biased or geographically restricted. This study addresses such challenges by focusing on the giant African snail ( Achatina fulica (Ferussac, 1821) (Gastropoda: Stylommatophora: Achatinidae)), a globally invasive species present on Chichijima island, Ogasawara Archipelago, Japan. Although the species has declined in range and abundance on the island since the 1990s, a time‐lagged population resurgence remains possible. To support proactive management, we developed SDMs using MaxEnt with three current observation datasets: two from Chichijima and Hahajima (both within the archipelago), and one from Hualien County, Taiwan. Notably, the latter two areas host high‐density populations. We projected these models onto Chichijima and assessed their predictive performance using historical monitoring data collected during peak abundance. Among the models, the one trained on Hahajima data exhibited the highest predictive accuracy, likely due to similar environmental conditions with Chichijima. This model identified several high‐risk areas on Chichijima that have not been recently surveyed but may serve as reinvasion hotspots. Our results demonstrate the utility of transferring SDMs across regions to enhance risk assessment in data‐limited contexts. By leveraging information from ecologically analogous populations, management strategies for invasive species can be more efficiently targeted, supporting early intervention and resource prioritization.

Related Organizations
  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
hybrid