
doi: 10.1109/scc.2017.56
Memes are topics that spread among people in a community. They could be ideas, behaviors, or styles, etc. Recent research found that the spreading of memes on microblogs displays epidemic patterns, while their popularity is predictable. Aiming for high accuracy, complex models that consider the structural details of community graphs are common. On the contrary, some models simply assume a community is evenly connected to sacrifice accuracy for efficiency. In this paper, we propose a prediction service that delivers the benefits of both worlds. Our service considers the properties of community graphs yet without the burden of their structural details to reduce complexity for online consumption. By comparing the viralities of memes against a community threshold, memes that would lead to population-wide coverage are identified. We also carefully examine sampling biases. Hence, reliable thresholds and accurate predictions are made as shown in our experiments.
| citations The total number of citations received by all articles of the researcher of interest. | 2 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
