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Probabilistic investment strategy modeling for generation expansion planning

Authors: Yusuke Manabe; Toshihisa Funabashi; Takeyoshi Kato; Muneaki Kurimoto; Yasuo Suzuoki;

Probabilistic investment strategy modeling for generation expansion planning

Abstract

A multi-agent generation expansion planning (GEP) simulation is useful for electricity market design. However, most preceding studies which assume a deterministic strategy didn't consider important elements of the multi-agent GEP, e.g. probabilistic strategy and multiple determination timing over years. This paper models the multi-agent GEP problem as an uncooperative stochastic strategy dynamic game, and proposes the novel simulation method based on reinforcement learning. Because this simulation method assumes probabilistic strategy, subgame's Nash equilibriums in every situation and every year can be derived. From the simulation results of the proposed method and conventional iterative search method for simple test power system, it's shown that a reasonable probabilistic investment strategy which can get more expected profit than the conventional method by the early investment strategy can be derived by using this method.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
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