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Short-term load forecasting: A power-regression approach

Authors: G. De Nicolao; M. Pozzi; E. Soda; M. Stori;

Short-term load forecasting: A power-regression approach

Abstract

The short-term load forecasting problem is addressed by means of a power regression approach. Exploiting the highly correlated nature of the explanatory variables, just two loads are deemed sufficiently informative for prediction purposes: one day before and one week before. The notion of "similar day" is then used to extract a meaningful training set from the historical records. The presence of a significant trend throughout the years suggests that invariance should be rather searched across load ratios, an observation that motivates the use of logarithmically transformed load data, thus leading to power regression model. When tested against the Italian national consumption during 2011 and 2012, the new LIST-4 predictor performs better than Sibilla, the forecaster currently used by the Italian TSO.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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