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Multi-state travel time reliability model: Impact of incidents on travel time reliability

Authors: Sangjun Park 0003; Hesham Rakha; Feng Guo;

Multi-state travel time reliability model: Impact of incidents on travel time reliability

Abstract

This paper attempts to quantify the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability using a newly proposed multi-state travel time reliability model. Given that the multi-state travel time reliability model provides significantly better fits when compared to using a single-mode density function, it is possible to quantify the incident impacts more accurately. In order to obtain travel times, the study simulates weekday traffic on a section of I-66 over 17 days, once with incidents and once without them, using the INTEGRATION microscopic traffic simulation software. The simulated travel time data sets are then used to fit a three-state travel time reliability model (three normal distributions) to calibrate the parameters of the density function using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The study demonstrates that incidents do not introduce an additional component distribution when congestion has already onset; instead they increase the mean travel time and variability in travel times for the congested conditions. For instance, the 90th percentile travel time of the second component distribution increases by up to 93 percent. Additionally, the study addresses technical issues related to the calibration and interpretation of the model from a practical standpoint.

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    influence
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
18
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
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