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Partial Kelly portfolios and shrinkage estimators

Authors: Justin K. Rising; Abraham J. Wyner;

Partial Kelly portfolios and shrinkage estimators

Abstract

The log-optimal or Kelly portfolio forms the basis of a theoretically appealing investment strategy. However, it is difficult to compute, and this hinders its adoption in practice. In this paper we consider an approximate Kelly portfolio based on maximizing the expected value of a quadratic approximation to log utility. We show that this semi-log approximation gives an information-theoretic justification for portfolio selection based on either the mean-variance efficient frontier or the Sharpe ratio. We further show that there is a strong connection between estimated approximate fractional Kelly portfolios and shrinkage estimators, which leads to an optimal choice of a fractional Kelly parameter. We conclude by showing that the fractional Kelly portfolio succeeds not because of reduced risk, but because of reduced estimation error. We simulate to show that this property is largely responsible for the good empirical performance of fractional Kelly strategies.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Average
Top 10%
Average
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