Target kill probability is one of the most important tactical and technical index. Its calculation result is attended while the air-to-air missile is finalized the design. This paper is based of engineering such as development, experimentation and campaign. AHP was adopted to calculate air-to-air missile kill probability, by make use of various experiment data in development of air-to-air missile. Correlative math model was built. the air-to-air missile kill probability was evaluated synthetically by example.