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Application of Support Vector Machines in Debt to GDP Ratio Forecasting

Authors: Chong Wu; Pu Chen;

Application of Support Vector Machines in Debt to GDP Ratio Forecasting

Abstract

This paper deals with the application of a novel neural network technique, Support Vector Machine (SVM), in financial time series forecasting. This study applies SVM to predict the debt to GDP ratio index. The objective of this paper is to examine the feasibility of SVM in foreign debt risk forecasting by comparing it with a back-propagation (BP) neural network. We choose Gaussian function as its Kernel function. The experiment shows that SVM outperforms the BP neural network based on the criteria of mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Analysis of the experimental results proved that it is advantageous to apply SVMs to forecast debt to GDP ratio.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
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