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https://doi.org/10.1109/icmla....
Article . 2007 . Peer-reviewed
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Estimating class probabilities in random forests

Authors: Boström, Henrik;

Estimating class probabilities in random forests

Abstract

For both single probability estimation trees (PETs) and ensembles of such trees, commonly employed class probability estimates correct the observed relative class frequencies in each leaf to avoid anomalies caused by small sample sizes. The effect of such corrections in random forests of PETs is investigated, and the use of the relative class frequency is compared to using two corrected estimates, the Laplace estimate and the m-estimate. An experiment with 34 datasets from the UCI repository shows that estimating class probabilities using relative class frequency clearly outperforms both using the Laplace estimate and the m-estimate with respect to accuracy, area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Brier score. Hence, in contrast to what is commonly employed for PETs and ensembles of PETs, these results strongly suggest that a non-corrected probability estimate should be used in random forests of PETs. The experiment further shows that learning random forests of PETs using relative class frequency significantly outperforms learning random forests of classification trees (i.e., trees for which only an unweighted vote on the most probable class is counted) with respect to both accuracy and AUC, but that the latter is clearly ahead of the former with respect to Brier score.

Country
Sweden
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Keywords

Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik, Information Systems

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
25
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
Green
bronze