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Fuzzy Game-Based Real Option Analysis in Competitive Investment Situation

Authors: Tanatch Tangsajanaphakul; Junzo Watada;

Fuzzy Game-Based Real Option Analysis in Competitive Investment Situation

Abstract

In real option pricing, it is impractical to assume the net present value of expected cash flow payoff as an exact number because it is a forecasted vague one. The price can be defined as a fuzzy number to express its estimated uncertain values and the Binomial Tree is used to price a real option. A modified pricing approach to real options is thus proposed to transform the forecasted uncertain values evaluated by experts into some normal fuzzy numbers. Futthermore, Fuzzy Game is employed to find optimal strategy. The paper's objective is to propose the method that fulfills the lacking competitive view in investment decision making. The approach consistes of the combination of Real Option Analysis and Game Theory. The integration of these two methods helps a decision maker to view uncertainty of the project from competition perspective. A real investment case is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed approach.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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