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Decision Support Using Deterministic Equivalents of Probabilistic Game Trees

Authors: Michael L. Valenzuela; Liana Suantak; Jerzy W. Rozenblit;

Decision Support Using Deterministic Equivalents of Probabilistic Game Trees

Abstract

We have developed a game-theory driven decision-support tool that builds probabilistic game trees automatically from user-defined actions, rules, and states. The result of evaluating the paths in the game tree is a series of decisions which forms a decision-path representing an epsilon-Nash-Equilibrium. The algorithm uses certainty-equivalents to handle trade-offs between expected rewards and risks, effectively modeling the probabilistic game tree as deterministic. The resulting decision-paths correspond to player actions in the scenario. These sets of actions can be used as search patterns against a real-world database. A match to one of these patterns indicates an instance of novel behavior patterns generated by the game-theory driven decision support tool. This particular paradigm could be applied in any domain that requires anticipating and responding to adversarial agents with uncertainty, from mission planning to emergency responders to systems configuration.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Top 10%
Average
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