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A Probabilistic Approach for Peak Load Demand Forecasting

Authors: Md. Nasmus Sakib Khan Shabbir; Mohammad Zawad Ali; Muhammad Sifatul Alam Chowdhury; Xiaodong Liang;

A Probabilistic Approach for Peak Load Demand Forecasting

Abstract

Accurate load forecasting is a critical step for power system generation planning. Contingency parameters of the system and their dynamic characteristics should be taken into account for load forecasting purpose. In this paper, a probabilistic load forecasting algorithm considering contingency parameters is developed for the peak load forecasting. Using Anderson-Darling test toolbox in MATLAB and the historical data, the probabilistic distribution of the contingency parameters can be determined. In a case study, the Monte-Carlo simulation is run to forecast load demand and generation scenarios of Bangladesh based on the developed adaptive algorithm and the calculated probabilistic distribution. The influence of contingency parameters is evaluated using Bayesian network in a sensitivity study.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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