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A Study on Exponential Smoothing Model for Load Forecasting

Authors: Peirong Ji; Di Xiong; Peng Wang; Juan Chen;

A Study on Exponential Smoothing Model for Load Forecasting

Abstract

Exponential smoothing model is one of the main load forecasting models of power systems, the accuracy of the model depends on smoothing coefficient. In this paper, a study on how to seek the best smoothing coefficient is given. The results show that using the principle of weighting more on near data and weighting less on far data to seek the optimal smoothing coefficient can get a better result. Based on the result, a method of how to weight more on near data and weight less on far data is proposed. A practical example of load forecasting with the method is also shown here.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
38
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
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