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Research Hotspot Prediction and Regular Evolutionary Pattern Identification Based on NSFC Grants Using NMF and Semantic Retrieval

Authors: Jinli Wang; Yong Fan; Libo Feng; Zhiwen Ye; Hui Zhang;

Research Hotspot Prediction and Regular Evolutionary Pattern Identification Based on NSFC Grants Using NMF and Semantic Retrieval

Abstract

Analyzing the research hotspots and regular evolutionary patterns of R&D projects can help researchers find potential information. This paper considers the titles of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) grants that have been awarded in the past 20 years as the research objects. First, we analyze the number and funding amounts of project grants for each department over the past 20 years. Second, we propose a topic discovery method that is based on nonnegative matrix factorization and further propose a keyword scoring method that is based on semantic retrieval, from which we can discover the regular evolutionary patterns of research hotspots. Finally, we conduct experiments on datasets on grants in the Department of Information Science. To identify research characteristics, trends and prospects, we explore the regular evolutionary patterns of research hotspots via experiments using three methods from multiple perspectives: word cloud, topic corresponded to keywords display and topic evolution display. The results of the experimental studies demonstrate that researchers can keep abreast of the main content and hotspots in the research field via hot spot discovery and the identification of regular evolutionary pattern of NSFC grants. This study can also help the government improve the allocation of scientific and technological resources and help decision makers make scientific decisions.

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Keywords

nonnegative matrix factorization, hotspot prediction, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, semantic association, NSFC, regular evolutionary pattern, TK1-9971

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
gold