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Adaptive Tree Proposals for Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference

Authors: Meyer, X.;

Adaptive Tree Proposals for Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference

Abstract

Abstract Bayesian inference of phylogenies with MCMC is without a doubt a staple in the study of evolution. Yet, this method still suffers from a practical challenge identified more than two decades ago: designing tree topology proposals that efficiently sample the tree space. In this article, I introduce the concept of tree topology proposals that adapt to the posterior distribution as it is estimated. I use this concept to elaborate two adaptive variants of existing proposals and an adaptive proposal based on a novel design philosophy in which the structure of the proposal is informed by the posterior distribution of trees. I investigate the performance of these proposals by first presenting a metric that captures the performance of each proposals within a mixture. Using this metric, I then compare the adaptive proposals performance to the performance of standard and parsimony-guided proposals on 11 empirical datasets. Using adaptive proposals led to consistent performance gains and resulted in up to 18-fold increases in mixing efficiency and 6-fold increases in converge rate without increasing the computational cost of these analyses. [Bayesian inference; Adaptive tree proposals; Markov chain Monte Carlo; phylogenetics; posterior probability distribution.]

Keywords

Models, Genetic, Bayes Theorem, Monte Carlo Method, Algorithms, Markov Chains, Phylogeny, Regular Articles

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    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
hybrid