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Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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Methods in Ecology and Evolution
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Infectious disease phylodynamics with occurrence data

Authors: Leo A. Featherstone; Francesca Di Giallonardo; Edward C. Holmes; Timothy G. Vaughan; Sebastián Duchêne;

Infectious disease phylodynamics with occurrence data

Abstract

Abstract Point 1 Phylodynamic models use pathogen genome sequence data to infer epidemiological dynamics. With the increasing genomic surveillance of pathogens, especially amid the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, new practical questions about their use are emerging. Point 2 One such question focuses on the inclusion of un-sequenced case occurrence data alongside sequenced data to improve phylodynamic analyses. This approach can be particularly valuable if sequencing efforts vary over time. Point 3 Using simulations, we demonstrate that birth-death phylodynamic models can employ occurrence data to eliminate bias in estimates of the basic reproductive number due to misspecification of the sampling process. In contrast, the coalescent exponential model is robust to such sampling biases, but in the absence of a sampling model it cannot exploit occurrence data. Subsequent analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the northwest USA supports these results. Point 4 We conclude that occurrence data are a valuable source of information in combination with birth-death models. These data should be used to bolster phylodynamic analyses of infectious diseases and other rapidly spreading species in the future.

Country
Australia
Keywords

570, Ecology, Evolution, COVID-19, pathogens, birth–death, coalescent, Bayesian statistics, phylodynamics, 310, Coronavirus, QH359-425, QH540-549.5

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    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
20
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold