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Improved estimates for extinction probabilities and times to extinction for populations of tsetse ( Glossina spp)

Authors: Kajunguri, Damian; Are, Elisha B.; Hargrove, John W.;

Improved estimates for extinction probabilities and times to extinction for populations of tsetse ( Glossina spp)

Abstract

Abstract A published study used a stochastic branching process to derive equations for the mean and variance of the probability of, and time to, extinction in population of tsetse flies ( Glossina spp) as a function of adult and pupal mortality, and the probabilities that a female is inseminated by a fertile male. The original derivation was partially heuristic and provided no proofs for inductive results. We provide these proofs, together with a more compact way of reaching the same results. We also show that, while the published equations hold good for the case where tsetse produce male and female offspring in equal proportion, a different solution is required for the more general case where the probability ( β ) that an offspring is female lies anywhere in the interval (0, 1). We confirm previous results obtained for the special case where β = 0.5 and show that extinction probability is at a minimum for β > 0.5 by an amount that increases with increasing adult female mortality. Sensitivity analysis showed that the extinction probability was affected most by changes in adult female mortality, followed by the rate of production of pupae. Because females only produce a single offspring approximately every 10 days, imposing a death rate of greater then about 3.5% per day will ensure the eradication of any tsetse population. These mortality levels can be achieved for some species using insecticide-treated targets or cattle – providing thereby a simple, effective and cost-effective method of controlling and eradicating tsetse, and also human and animal trypanosomiasis. Our results are of further interest in the modern situation where increases in temperature are seeing the real possibility that tsetse will go extinct in some areas, without the need for intervention, but have an increased chance of surviving in other areas where they were previously unsustainable due to low temperatures. Author summary We derive equations for the mean and variance of the probability of, and time to, extinction in population of tsetse flies ( Glossina spp), the vectors of trypanosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa. In so doing we provide the complete proofs for all results, which were not provided in a previously published study. We also generalise the derivation to allow the probability that an offspring is female to lie anywhere in the interval (0, 1). The probability of extinction was most sensitive to changes in adult female mortality. The unusual tsetse life cycle, with very low reproductive rates means that populations can be eradicated as long as adult female mortality is raised to levels greater than about 3.5% per day. Simple bait methods of tsetse control, such as insecticide-treated targets and cattle, can therefore provide simple, affordable and effective means of eradicating tsetse populations. The results are of further interest in the modern situation where increases in temperature are seeing the real possibility that tsetse will go extinct in some areas, but have an increased chance of surviving in others where they were previously unsustainable due to low temperatures.

Country
South Africa
Keywords

Male, Population Density, Tsetse flies -- Control, Probabilities, 570, Models, Statistical, Tsetse Flies, RC955-962, Pupa, 600, Insect Control, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Animals, Female, Extinction (Biology) -- Mathematical models, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, Research Article, Probability

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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold