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Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
License: Royal Society Data Sharing and Accessibility
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.1101/288191...
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
MPG.PuRe
Article . 2018
Data sources: MPG.PuRe
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Counteracting estimation bias and social influence to improve the wisdom of crowds

Authors: Albert B. Kao; Andrew M. Berdahl; Andrew T. Hartnett; Matthew J. Lutz; Joseph B. Bak-Coleman; Christos C. Ioannou; Xingli Giam; +1 Authors

Counteracting estimation bias and social influence to improve the wisdom of crowds

Abstract

Abstract Aggregating multiple non-expert opinions into a collective estimate can improve accuracy across many contexts. However, two sources of error can diminish collective wisdom: individual estimation biases and information sharing between individuals. Here we measure individual biases and social influence rules in multiple experiments involving hundreds of individuals performing a classic numerosity estimation task. We first investigate how existing aggregation methods, such as calculating the arithmetic mean or the median, are influenced by these sources of error. We show that the mean tends to overestimate, and the median underestimate, the true value for a wide range of numerosities. Quantifying estimation bias, and mapping individual bias to collective bias, allows us to develop and validate three new aggregation measures that effectively counter sources of collective estimation error. In addition, we present results from a further experiment that quantifies the social influence rules that individuals employ when incorporating personal estimates with social information. We show that the corrected mean is remarkably robust to social influence, retaining high accuracy in the presence or absence of social influence, across numerosities, and across different methods for averaging social information. Utilizing knowledge of estimation biases and social influence rules may therefore be an inexpensive and general strategy to improve the wisdom of crowds.

Countries
Germany, United Kingdom
Keywords

info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/570, Likelihood Functions, 330, Collective intelligence, Statistics as Topic, Social Networking, Social influence, Numerosity, Knowledge, Humans, Estimation bias, Wisdom of crowds, Social Behavior

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
49
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze