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Mathematical Biosciences
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The Basic Reproductive Number for Disease Systems with Multiple Coupled Heterogeneities

The basic reproductive number for disease systems with multiple coupled heterogeneities
Authors: Lloyd, Alun L.; Kitron, Uriel; Perkins, T. Alex; Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.; Waller, Lance A.;

The Basic Reproductive Number for Disease Systems with Multiple Coupled Heterogeneities

Abstract

AbstractIn mathematical epidemiology, a well-known formula describes the impact of heterogeneity on the basic reproductive number,R0, for situations in which transmission is separable and for which there is one source of variation in susceptibility and one source of variation in infectiousness. This formula is written in terms of the magnitudes of the heterogeneities, as quantified by their coefficients of variation, and the correlation between them. A natural question to ask is whether analogous results apply when there are multiple sources of variation in susceptibility and/or infectiousness. In this paper we demonstrate that with three or more coupled heterogeneities,R0under separable transmission depends on details of the distribution of the heterogeneities in a way that is not seen in the well-known simpler situation. We provide explicit formulae for the cases of multivariate normal and multivariate log-normal distributions, showing thatR0can again be expressed in terms of the magnitudes of the heterogeneities and the pairwise correlations between them. The formulae, however, differ between the two multivariate distributions, demonstrating that no formula of this type applies generally when there are three or more coupled heterogeneities. We see that the results of the formulae are approximately equal when heterogeneities are relatively small and show that an earlier result in the literature (Koella, 1991) should be viewed in this light. We provide numerical illustrations of our results and discuss a setting in which coupled heterogeneities are likely to have a major impact on the value ofR0. We also describe a rather surprising result: in a system with three heterogeneities,R0can exhibit non-monotonic behavior with increasing levels of heterogeneity, in marked contrast to the familiar two heterogeneity setting in whichR0either increases or decreases with increasing heterogeneity.

Keywords

Epidemiology, Basic Reproduction Number, disease transmission model, basic reproductive number, Humans, heterogeneity, Models, Biological, coupled heterogeneities

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
7
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
bronze