AbstractMobile genetic elements (MGEs), such as plasmids, phages, and transposons, play a critical role in mediating the transfer and maintenance of diverse traits and functions in microbial communities. This role depends on the ability of MGEs to persist. For a community consisting of multiple populations transferring multiple MGEs, however, the conditions underlying the persistence of these MGEs are poorly understood. Computationally, this difficulty arises from the combinatorial explosion associated with describing the gene flow in a complex community using the conventional modeling framework. Here, we describe an MGE-centric framework that makes it computationally feasible to analyze such transfer dynamics. Using this framework, we derive the persistence potential: a general, heuristic metric that predicts the persistence and abundance of any MGEs. We validate the metric with engineered microbial consortia transferring mobilizable plasmids and quantitative data available in the literature. Our modeling framework and the resulting metric have implications for developing a quantitative understanding of natural microbial communities and guiding the engineering of microbial consortia.