
We explore an augmented democracy system built on off-the-shelf large language models (LLMs) fine-tuned to augment data on citizens’ preferences elicited over policies extracted from the government programmes of the two main candidates of Brazil’s 2022 presidential election. We use a train-test cross-validation set-up to estimate the accuracy with which the LLMs predict both: a subject’s individual political choices and the aggregate preferences of the full sample of participants. At the individual level, we find that LLMs predict out of sample preferences more accurately than a ‘bundle rule’, which would assume that citizens always vote for the proposals of the candidate aligned with their self-reported political orientation. At the population level, we show that a probabilistic sample augmented by an LLM provides a more accurate estimate of the aggregate preferences of a population than the non-augmented probabilistic sample alone. Together, these results indicate that policy preference data augmented using LLMs can capture nuances that transcend party lines and represents a promising avenue of research for data augmentation. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance’.
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Computation and Language, [INFO.INFO-GT]Computer Science [cs]/Computer Science and Game Theory [cs.GT], 330, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Politics, [INFO.INFO-LO]Computer Science [cs]/Logic in Computer Science [cs.LO], Models, Theoretical, Democracy, [INFO.INFO-AI]Computer Science [cs]/Artificial Intelligence [cs.AI], Computer Science - Computers and Society, Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI), [INFO.INFO-MA]Computer Science [cs]/Multiagent Systems [cs.MA], Computers and Society (cs.CY), Humans, B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE, Computation and Language (cs.CL), Research Articles, Brazil, Language
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Computation and Language, [INFO.INFO-GT]Computer Science [cs]/Computer Science and Game Theory [cs.GT], 330, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Politics, [INFO.INFO-LO]Computer Science [cs]/Logic in Computer Science [cs.LO], Models, Theoretical, Democracy, [INFO.INFO-AI]Computer Science [cs]/Artificial Intelligence [cs.AI], Computer Science - Computers and Society, Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI), [INFO.INFO-MA]Computer Science [cs]/Multiagent Systems [cs.MA], Computers and Society (cs.CY), Humans, B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE, Computation and Language (cs.CL), Research Articles, Brazil, Language
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 5 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
