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Next-generation time of death estimation: combining surrogate model-based parameter optimization and numerical thermodynamics

combining surrogate model-based parameter optimization and numerical thermodynamics
Authors: Leah S. Wilk; Gerda J. Edelman; Maurice C. G. Aalders;

Next-generation time of death estimation: combining surrogate model-based parameter optimization and numerical thermodynamics

Abstract

The postmortem interval (PMI), i.e. the time since death, plays a key role in forensic investigations, as it aids in the reconstruction of the timeline of events. Currently, the standard method for PMI estimation empirically correlates rectal temperatures and PMIs, frequently necessitating subjective correction factors. To address this shortcoming, numerical thermodynamic algorithms have recently been developed, providing rigorous methods to simulate postmortem body temperatures. Comparing these with measured body temperatures then allows non-subjective PMI determination. This approach, however, hinges on knowledge of two thermodynamic input parameters, which are often irretrievable in forensic practice: the ambient temperature prior to discovery of the body and the body temperature at the time of death (perimortem). Here, we overcome this critical limitation by combining numerical thermodynamic modelling with surrogate model-based parameter optimization. This hybrid computational framework predicts the two unknown parameters directly from the measured postmortem body temperatures. Moreover, by substantially reducing computation times (compared with conventional optimization algorithms), this powerful approach is uniquely suited for use directly at the crime scene. Crucially, we validated this method on deceased human bodies and achieved the lowest PMI estimation errors to date (0.18 h ± 0.77 h). Together, these aspects fundamentally expand the applicability of numerical thermodynamic PMI estimation.

Country
Netherlands
Related Organizations
Keywords

Engineering, 614, forensic science, Science, Q, surrogate model-based parameter optimization, postmortem interval estimation, numerical thermodynamics, skin thermometry, 004

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold