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Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics

Authors: Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A.; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe;

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics

Abstract

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics.

Countries
United Kingdom, United States, Belgium
Keywords

Epidemiology, Evolutionary Biology (science-metrix), Bayesian inference, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment (hrcs-rac), 3105 Genetics (for-2020), EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZES, 0604 Genetics (for), 2.5 Research design and methodologies (aetiology), Models, Pneumonia & Influenza (rcdc), 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS, Phylogeny, Networking and Information Technology R&D (NITRD) (rcdc), 3 Good Health and Well Being (sdg), pathogen phylodynamics, Ecology, discrete trait evolution, Bioengineering (rcdc), 3103 Ecology, 2.5 Research design and methodologies (aetiology) (hrcs-rac), 3104 Evolutionary biology (for-2020), Biological Sciences, 1.4 Methodologies and measurements, Biological Evolution, Epidemiology (mesh), Infection (hrcs-hc), Infectious Diseases, Networking and Information Technology R&D (NITRD), Virus Diseases, continuous trait evolution, Host-Pathogen Interactions, Viruses, Pneumonia & Influenza, Biological Evolution (mesh), VIRUS, The following are online-only papers that are freely available as part of Issue 66(1) online., Infection, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, 570, Virus Diseases (mesh), 1.4 Methodologies and measurements (hrcs-rac), Bioengineering, Biological (mesh), Phylogeny (mesh), Models, Biological, 3104 Evolutionary Biology (for-2020), Emerging Infectious Diseases (rcdc), 3105 Genetics, 576, 3103 Ecology (for-2020), LIKELIHOOD, 0603 Evolutionary Biology, coalescent models, Biodefense, Genetics, Biodefense (rcdc), data integration, 3104 Evolutionary biology, Evolutionary Biology, ANCESTRAL CHARACTER STATES, 0604 Genetics, 31 Biological Sciences (for-2020), Influenza (rcdc), Viruses (mesh), Science & Technology, WITHIN-HOST, birth-death models, covariates, Biological, Influenza, Host-Pathogen Interactions (mesh), MOLECULAR EVOLUTION, DNA-SEQUENCES, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Good Health and Well Being, 0603 Evolutionary Biology (for), Infectious Diseases (rcdc), BAYESIAN-INFERENCE, EVOLUTIONARY ANALYSIS

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
89
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
hybrid