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Systematic Biology
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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PubMed Central
Article . 2022
License: CC BY
Data sources: PubMed Central
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Performance of Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion in Selecting Partition Models and Mixture Models

Authors: Qin Liu; Michael A Charleston; Shane A Richards; Barbara R Holland;

Performance of Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion in Selecting Partition Models and Mixture Models

Abstract

AbstractIn molecular phylogenetics, partition models and mixture models provide different approaches to accommodating heterogeneity in genomic sequencing data. Both types of models generally give a superior fit to data than models that assume the process of sequence evolution is homogeneous across sites and lineages. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), an estimator of Kullback–Leibler divergence, and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are popular tools to select models in phylogenetics. Recent work suggests that AIC should not be used for comparing mixture and partition models. In this work, we clarify that this difficulty is not fully explained by AIC misestimating the Kullback–Leibler divergence. We also investigate the performance of the AIC and BIC at comparing amongst mixture models and amongst partition models. We find that under nonstandard conditions (i.e. when some edges have small expected number of changes), AIC underestimates the expected Kullback–Leibler divergence. Under such conditions, AIC preferred the complex mixture models and BIC preferred the simpler mixture models. The mixture models selected by AIC had a better performance in estimating the edge length, while the simpler models selected by BIC performed better in estimating the base frequencies and substitution rate parameters. In contrast, AIC and BIC both prefer simpler partition models over more complex partition models under nonstandard conditions, despite the fact that the more complex partition model was the generating model. We also investigated how mispartitioning (i.e., grouping sites that have not evolved under the same process) affects both the performance of partition models compared with mixture models and the model selection process. We found that as the level of mispartitioning increases, the bias of AIC in estimating the expected Kullback–Leibler divergence remains the same, and the branch lengths and evolutionary parameters estimated by partition models become less accurate. We recommend that researchers are cautious when using AIC and BIC to select among partition and mixture models; other alternatives, such as cross-validation and bootstrapping, should be explored, but may suffer similar limitations [AIC; BIC; mispartitioning; partitioning; partition model; mixture model].

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Keywords

Spotlight Articles, Bayes Theorem, Genomics, Phylogeny

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
59
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
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